UM MILHÃO DE ANALISTAS, ENGENHEIROS, etc nos EUA

E NO BRASIL?...

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MORE THAN A MILLION new computer scientists, engineers, systems analysts, and computer programmers will be needed in the U.S. between 1994 and 2005, according to a recent report from the Office of Technology Policy of the U.S. Department of Commerce.

"America's New Deficit: The Shortage of Information Technology Workers" looks at...

 

• definitions of "information technology" (IT).
• job descriptions of several kinds of IT professionals -- computer scientists and engineers, systems analysts, and computer programers.
• the growing importance of the computer and data processing services industry.
• factors affecting the supply of IT workers.
• responses to the shortage of IT workers, including federal initiatives to raise the technical skills of the American workforce.

The full report is available in PDF only at: http://www.ta.doc.gov/otpolicy/reports.htm http://www.ta.doc.gov/reports/itsw/itsw.pdf
The report is also available in hardcopy, although quantities may be limited, from the Office of Technology Policy's Publications Request Line at (202) 482-3037. (Please leave your name and mailing address on the recording.)

Below are excerpts from the report.

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Excerpts from "America's New Deficit:
The Shortage of Information Technology Workers"
Office of Technology Policy,
U.S. Department of Commerce, September 1997
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The Demand
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The Office of Technology Policy analyzed Bureau of Labor Statistics' growth projections for the three core occupational classifications of IT workers -- computer scientists and engineers, systems analysts, and computer programmers -- to assess future U.S. demand.

BLS projections indicate that between 1994 and 2005, the U.S. will require more than one million new IT workers in these three occupations to fill newly created jobs (820,000) and to replace workers who are leaving these fields (227,000) as a result of retirement, change of professions, or other reasons.

Of the three occupations, the largest job growth is accounted for by systems analysts, which are projected to increase from 483,000 in 1994 to 928,000 in 2005, a 92% jump. This compares to a projected increase of 14.5% for all occupations. The number of computer engineers and scientists is expected to grow by 90%, from 345,000 to 655,000 over the same period, while the number of computer programmer positions is expected to grow at a much slower 12% rate, from 537,000 in 1994 to 601,000 in 2005. ==========================================================

COMPUTER SCIENTISTS generally design computers and conduct research to improve their design or use, and develop and adapt principles for applying computers to new uses. They are distinguished from other computer professionals by the higher level of theoretical expertise and innovation they apply to complex problems and the creation or application of new technology....

COMPUTER ENGINEERS work with the hardware and software aspects of systems design and development. They may often work as part of a team that designs new computing devices or computer-related equipment. Software engineers design and develop both packaged and systems software....

SYSTEMS ANALYSTS...study business, scientific, or engineering data processing problems and design new solutions using computers. This process may include planning and developing new computer systems or devising ways to apply existing systems to operations still completed manually or by some less efficient method.... They work to help an organization realize the maximum benefit from its investment in equipment, personnel and business processes.

COMPUTER PROGRAMMERS write and maintain the detailed instructions, called "programs" or "software," that list in logical order the steps that computers must execute to perform their functions. In many large organizations, they follow descriptions prepared by systems analysts who have studied the task that the computer systems is going to perform....

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The Supply
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Education Pipeline for IT Workers

Over the last ten years, there has been a decline in the number of students receiving university degrees in computer science. These graduates come from four-year degree-granting universities which focus on computer theory; that is, operating systems, languages, distributed systems, computer architecture and compilers. According to the U.S. Department of Education, the number of bachelor-level computer science degrees awarded by U.S. universities declined more than 40% between 1986 and 1994, from 42,195 to 24,553. The significant decline in bachelor-level computer science degrees is, however, an imperfect indicator of declining labor supply, given that many IT workers acquire their skills through alternative education and training paths. While there have been some increases in the award of computer science masters and doctoral degrees, overall computer science degrees awarded have dropped from a high of 50,000 in 1986 to 36,000 in 1994. In addition, foreign students make up a significant share of U.S. computer science graduates. Of the 36,000 individuals awarded graduate and undergraduate computer science degrees in 1994, about 18% were foreign nationals. For advanced degrees, the proportion of foreign nationals increases, reaching more than 50% for doctorates. The Computer Research Association estimates that foreign nationals comprise nearly 50% of computer engineering students in the U.S. The high proportion of foreign nationals in the graduate population would indicate that American industry cannot count on capturing all new graduates.

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Global Shortage

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As in the U.S., data limitations make it difficult to assess and compare the supply and demand for IT workers in foreign countries. Nevertheless, executive surveys and anecdotal evidence suggest that IT workers are in increasingly short supply in other countries as well. A survey of some 1,500 chief information officers in 21 countries, conducted by Deloitte and Touche Consulting Group, suggests that IT managers throughout the world are experiencing a difficult combination of unprecedented demand for IT workers and high turnover rates. According to the survey, companies are finding it especially difficult to retain employees in four key areas -- client/server architecture, data modeling, distributed databases, and particular packaged software applications such as SAP. Turnover rates in these areas range from 35 to 45%.

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Competitiveness Issues

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Information technologies are the most important enabling technologies in the economy today. They affect every sector and industry in the U.S., in terms of digitally-based products, services, and production and work processes. Thus, severe shortages of workers who can apply and use information technologies could undermine U.S. innovation, productivity, and competitiveness in world markets.

• Industry Growth In the ITAA survey ["Help Wanted: The IT Workforce Gap at the Dawn of a New Century" from the Information Technology Association of America], 50% of the information technology company executives cited lack of skilled/trained workers as "the most significant barrier" to their companies' growth during the next year -- a problem viewed as significantly greater than economic conditions, profitability, lack of capital investment, taxes, or regulation. An additional 20% of the IT company executives identified the shortage of these workers as "a barrier" to their companies' growth during the next year.
• Innovation ~ The U.S. is a leader in the development of new products and services, and many important consumer and industrial innovations- from computers, consumer electronic products and telecommunications services to automotive electronics, aerospace products and advanced industrial systems-have been made possible by information technologies. Information technologies are expected to continue to form the basis of many of the most important products, services and processes of the future. For example, it is expected that in less than a decade, electronics will account for about one-fifth of an automobile's value. Shortages of IT workers could inhibit the nation's ability to develop leading-edge products and services, and raise their costs which, in turn, would reduce U.S. competitiveness and constrain economic growth.
• Trade The shortage of IT workers could undermine U.S. performance in global markets. The global market for computer software and computer services reached $277 billion in 1994. The U.S. is both the predominant supplier of and the primary consumer for these goods and services. Ranked in terms of global market share in 1994, eight of the world's top ten applications software vendors and seven of the top ten systems software vendors are U.S. firms. Both of these markets are growing rapidly, with the computer software market growing 12% annually, and the computer services market growing 11% annually, reaching $420 billion by 1998, a 50% increase just between 1994 and 1998. Aerospace, another IT worker intensive industry is also a global market leader for the U.S., and is the Nation's leading net exporter of manufactured goods. An adequate supply of IT workers is essential to America's continued strength in these markets.
• High-Wage Jobs A shortage of qualified IT workers could also prevent the U.S. from taking full advantage of high-wage job creation. Many information technology jobs are high-wage jobs. Workers in the software industry earn more than twice the national average. A William M. Mercer compensation study shows that the average hourly compensation in 1996 for an intermediate customer support technician was $40.80; software development architect, $77.70; operating systems software architect/consultant, $85.60, and operating systems/software programming analyst manager, $92.20. Even if shortages ease and upward pressure on salaries is reduced, the IT professions have traditionally been high-wage jobs.

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  -- The word "deadline" originally referred to a line drawn around a military prison, beyond which prisoners were summarily shot.

  O Boletim SBMAC agradece a contribuição do
  Professor Silvio Lemos Meira
  Departamento de Informática, UFPE
  RECIFE, BR
  http://www.di.ufpe.br/~srlm
  srlm@di.ufpe.br,
  atual Presidente da SBC, por ter mencionado para o Corpo Editorial o presente texto.